How do I cite ADOPT?
ADOPT can be cited as:
Kuehne G, Llewellyn R, Pannell D, Wilkinson R, Dolling P, Ouzman J, Ewing M (2017) Predicting
farmer uptake of new agricultural practices: A tool for research, extension and policy, Agricultural Systems 156:115-125
How do I access Smallholder ADOPT?
Smallholder ADOPT and Standard ADOPT are both available via the web interface. When creating a new project, a dropdown
asks which model you would like to use for the project. Please keep in mind that Smallholder ADOPT is a beta version
that has undergone less calibration and validation than the standard ADOPT. You can see more about the development of
Smallholder ADOPT here: https://www.aciar.gov.au/node/12611.
There is further development work planned over the coming years.
What does ADOPT do?
For a simple introduction to ADOPT see this video.
Does ADOPT predict adoption of individuals?
ADOPT predicts adoption rates within the target population that you specify and characterise. It does not predict adoption of an individual. The inputs to ADOPT recognise that a population is diverse so the focus is on the proportion of a population with particular characteristics.
How do I save my ADOPT projects and reports?
Each ADOPT project is saved under its own name. Your ADOPT project list, including your input data, is automatically saved in your project list and can be returned to at any time. If the ADOPT model is modified in any way in the future your online reports will automatically be updated to reflect the change. For this reason, we recommend that you also save PDF versions of your completed projects so that you have a permanent record.
Has ADOPT been validated against actual diffusion data?
You can find some examples of ADOPT validation in the paper here https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.06.007. ADOPT is often used in a wider range of industries than
our validation exercises have considered and still found useful. We are working on further adaptation and validation
beyond the common broadacre examples. ADOPT is most commonly used on soon-to-be-released innovations or early in the
diffusion process of an innovation so testing against actual data is usually not possible.
Can I use ADOPT in a small-group workshop setting?
Yes. In fact we think ADOPT works best when there are multiple viewpoints and experiences contributing to a consensus on the
inputs. It can help to overcome any biases or blindspots that individuals may have when considering the breadth of
factors that may influence adoption.
Why does ADOPT ask me to specify details of the target population?
We have found that having a clearly described target population is an important step that can often be overlooked by
those considering adoption. Often ADOPT users discover that they are dealing with distinct sub-populations that should
be targeted differently.
Can ADOPT be used with multi-component innovations or 'systems' changes?
Yes it can. However you need to consider any step-wise approaches to adoption that may be expected. For example,
some potential adopters may have already adopted one or more components while others may still need to adopt more
than one component before they are classified as an adopter of the multi-component innovation. ADOPT can help you
recognise the importance of considering sub-populations based on their existing adoption status.
Do I need survey data to be able to use ADOPT?
No. ADOPT has been developed knowing that in most cases users won't have access or the resources to collect survey
data. While it can help if available and it can be useful to be aware of the publicly available survey data that
is available for your target population it is not necessary.
How do I include consideration of policy changes in ADOPT?
If use of a particular innovation is likely to be enforced by regulation then you may not need ADOPT – policy will
make it easy to predict and most other factors may become redundant. More commonly though, policy may influence a
range of factors. For example, a subsidy scheme may reduce upfront costs or profit in the year it is used so can
be captured there. A regulated environmental requirement or target may increase environmental motivation of the
population so can be captured there; or an environmental innovation may also reduce farm business risk by reducing
the risk of a major regulatory penalty to the farm business. The justification text box can be used to describe
The relative advantage of an innovation may change over time as it gets further adapted and developed or becomes
cheaper to purpose - how do I deal with that?
ADOPT does not specifically account for these types of dynamics, mainly because they are very hard to predict with
any certainty. However, where you expect a change in a factor to occur, such as the purchase price of a newly
available innovation falling over time (as many electronic innovations tend to do), then you should recognise
this in by assuming a typical upfront cost or level of profitability that isn't just based on the initial release
What is the 'near-peak' adoption figure that ADOPT shows in the results?
In ADOPT we present a 'Time to near-peak adoption level' which is the time it takes to reach 99% of the predicted
peak level of adoption. The nature of the typical 'S-shaped' diffusion curve means that the time it can take for
adoption to proceed from 99% of peak adoption through to the full 100% of peak adoption can take a relatively
long time. This reflects the common observation that adoption by the final few percent of a population of adopters
can be very slow and the particularly long time it can take before the final adopter in a population adopts. We
have found that time to 'near-peak' is a more useful figure for ADOPT users.